Hong Kong, (ANTARA News/Xinhua-PRNewswire-AsiaNet) - Two years ago Charles Dumas foretold an economic crisis. He was right. Now, in the timely sequel to the prophetic Bill from the China Shop, he outlines alternative reckonings: devastating economic consequences or another path to greater global prosperity...
In his last book, The Bill from the China Shop, Charles Dumas predicted how the Asian savings glut would force-feed US mortgage borrowing to excess. In China and America points to the next risks, incisively analysing the current credit crunch and the possible devastating economic consequences, while also outlining an alternative path to greater global prosperity.
In America the credit crunch is likely to be followed by an economic downswing, led by housing, but with weakened household wealth and confidence prolonging the pain. US policy-makers seem impotent against the backwash from past debt excesses -- and much of what the Federal Reserve does simply worsens the problem.
Meanwhile China's explosive exports are feeding through to risk overheating the domestic economy. Inflation has accelerated. Beijing may fight it by letting China's yuan rise and/or its domestic savings flow overseas.
If the Chinese authorities allow major yuan appreciation and progressively freer overseas investment, both the Chinese and world economies could rebalance quite easily.
As the two most dominant nations in the global economy separately face the economic challenges imposed by their symbiotic relationship, this examination of the risks it poses -- and policy tensions arising from possible solutions -- makes China and America essential reading for anyone concerned about our future economic prosperity.
Information:
Launch:
China and America: A Time of Reckoning by Charles Dumas was published by Profile Books on 22 April 2008, price 12.99 pound sterling paperback.
The launch party is on the evening of the 19th May at the Royal Hong Kong Yacht Club and Charles Dumas will be available for questions. If you would like to attend please email lsrasia@lombardstreetresearch.com .
About the author:
Charles Dumas has been Head of the World Service at Lombard Street Research since 1998 and is one of the world's leading macroeconomic forecasters.
For more information, or an interview with Charles Dumas, please call Pippa Courtney-Sutton, Lombard Street Research in London on +44 (0)207 382 5911 or contact Edward Stockreisser in Hong Kong on +852 3196 3731 or Stockreisser@lombardstreetresearch.com
About Lombard Street Research:
Lombard Street Research provides independent macroeconomic forecasting and analysis to asset managers, banks and global corporations all around the world.
For almost twenty years the company has helped institutions improve their investment thinking, their returns and their management of risk. The key foundation of the research is monetary economics. Fundamental analysis of trends in money and credit, banking systems and flows-of-funds provide unique insights into economic developments and into likely movements of financial asset prices. Proprietary leading indicators are also used to help generate forecasts for economic growth in the major global economies.
Praise for The Bill from the China Shop:
'In 2005 incoming Fed chairman Ben Bernanke argued that a global saving glut is causing the huge US current account deficits. Charles Dumas recognised this truth long before him. This splendid book explains how Asia's surpluses are driving US households ever deeper into debt and why this unsustainable process must end in tears.'
Martin Wolf, Financial Times
CONTACT:
Edward Stockreisser
Lombard Street Research
Tel: +852-3196-3731
Email: Stockreisser@lombardstreetresearch.com
SOURCE Lombard Street Research
In his last book, The Bill from the China Shop, Charles Dumas predicted how the Asian savings glut would force-feed US mortgage borrowing to excess. In China and America points to the next risks, incisively analysing the current credit crunch and the possible devastating economic consequences, while also outlining an alternative path to greater global prosperity.
In America the credit crunch is likely to be followed by an economic downswing, led by housing, but with weakened household wealth and confidence prolonging the pain. US policy-makers seem impotent against the backwash from past debt excesses -- and much of what the Federal Reserve does simply worsens the problem.
Meanwhile China's explosive exports are feeding through to risk overheating the domestic economy. Inflation has accelerated. Beijing may fight it by letting China's yuan rise and/or its domestic savings flow overseas.
If the Chinese authorities allow major yuan appreciation and progressively freer overseas investment, both the Chinese and world economies could rebalance quite easily.
As the two most dominant nations in the global economy separately face the economic challenges imposed by their symbiotic relationship, this examination of the risks it poses -- and policy tensions arising from possible solutions -- makes China and America essential reading for anyone concerned about our future economic prosperity.
Information:
Launch:
China and America: A Time of Reckoning by Charles Dumas was published by Profile Books on 22 April 2008, price 12.99 pound sterling paperback.
The launch party is on the evening of the 19th May at the Royal Hong Kong Yacht Club and Charles Dumas will be available for questions. If you would like to attend please email lsrasia@lombardstreetresearch.com .
About the author:
Charles Dumas has been Head of the World Service at Lombard Street Research since 1998 and is one of the world's leading macroeconomic forecasters.
For more information, or an interview with Charles Dumas, please call Pippa Courtney-Sutton, Lombard Street Research in London on +44 (0)207 382 5911 or contact Edward Stockreisser in Hong Kong on +852 3196 3731 or Stockreisser@lombardstreetresearch.com
About Lombard Street Research:
Lombard Street Research provides independent macroeconomic forecasting and analysis to asset managers, banks and global corporations all around the world.
For almost twenty years the company has helped institutions improve their investment thinking, their returns and their management of risk. The key foundation of the research is monetary economics. Fundamental analysis of trends in money and credit, banking systems and flows-of-funds provide unique insights into economic developments and into likely movements of financial asset prices. Proprietary leading indicators are also used to help generate forecasts for economic growth in the major global economies.
Praise for The Bill from the China Shop:
'In 2005 incoming Fed chairman Ben Bernanke argued that a global saving glut is causing the huge US current account deficits. Charles Dumas recognised this truth long before him. This splendid book explains how Asia's surpluses are driving US households ever deeper into debt and why this unsustainable process must end in tears.'
Martin Wolf, Financial Times
CONTACT:
Edward Stockreisser
Lombard Street Research
Tel: +852-3196-3731
Email: Stockreisser@lombardstreetresearch.com
SOURCE Lombard Street Research
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